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Five Things to Watch on Sunday | Chargers vs. Chiefs

Here’s a quick game preview heading into Sunday

The Kansas City Chiefs will have an opportunity to clinch a ninth-straight division title on Sunday night with a prime-time clash against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Here are five things to keep in mind heading into game day.

1. Here's a look at the final injury report for both teams.

For the Chiefs, only wide receiver Mecole Hardman (knee) – listed as "Questionable" – carries an injury designation into Sunday's game. Otherwise, the Chiefs are, at least relatively speaking, the healthiest they've been in quite a while.

As for the Chargers, the situation is much different. First and foremost, Los Angeles won't have tailback J.K. Dobbins on Sunday night, and that's a big deal. The Chargers run the ball at a 47% clip – the ninth-highest rate in the league – and when Dobbins has been on the field, Los Angeles has averaged 4.8 yards-per-carry. Conversely, without Dobbins on the field, the Chargers have averaged only 3.2 yards-per-carry. Dobbins also owns a 15.2% "explosive run rate" this season, which includes 24 rushes of 10+ yards. That's the second-highest rate of any player in the league.

It's all to say that Dobbins is a big part of the Chargers' offense, and it's no surprise that last week against Atlanta – Los Angeles' first game without Dobbins – the Chargers ran the ball a season-low 17 times and gained just 187 yards of total offense. His absence is significant.

Another major situation to monitor is that of wide receiver Ladd McConkey, who was limited in practice this week due to shoulder and knee injuries. McConkey, who is having an excellent rookie season, has at least six catches for 80+ yards in each of his last three games. A whopping 80% of quarterback Justin Herbert's passing yards last week went to McConkey, and for the season, the former Georgia star's team-leading 815 receiving yards are more than double that of the next closest player on the Chargers.

McConkey is listed as "Questionable" for Sunday, so his availability – and if he plays, his effectiveness – will be something to watch considering that Dobbins (who has already been ruled out) and McConkey have accounted for 43% of the Chargers' offensive yards this season.

2. The Chiefs will need to protect against the Chargers' red-hot pass-rush.

Los Angeles enters Sunday's game with 23 sacks and 43 quarterback hits since Week 8, both of which lead the NFL in that time. Specifically, edge rusher Tuli Tuipulotu (who had no sacks through his first six games of the season) leads the league with seven sacks since Week 8.

That sets up a major challenge for a Chiefs' offensive line that has yielded a season-most five sacks in each of the last two games. On that topic, Head Coach Andy Reid did not reveal who the Chiefs plan to start at left tackle on Sunday. One of the options, of course, is veteran D.J. Humphries, who signed with Kansas City a few weeks ago.

"He took some reps [this week], but let's just see how he ends up after today," Reid said on Friday. "We'll go from there. We've kind of rotated guys in there, but he did take some reps. He made it through yesterday [well], so we'll see how it went today."

Humphries, who is returning from a torn ACL suffered late last season, has more than 3,500 career snaps under his belt at left tackle. If he's able to play, his ability to stabilize the position would go a long way toward a Chiefs' victory on Sunday.

3. Kansas City's proficiency in the red zone may decide the game.

The Chiefs are just 7-for-17 in terms of red zone touchdown efficiency over the last four weeks, and that includes a 3-for-3 mark against the Bills in Week 11. So, aside from that game, Kansas City is only 4-for-14 in the red zone in its other three most recent contests:

  • Week 10 vs. Denver: 1-for-4 (a difference of 12 potential points)
  • Week 12 at Carolina: 2-for-5 (a difference of 12 potential points)
  • Week 13 vs. Las Vegas: 1-for-5 (a difference of 16 potential points)

Altogether, that's 40 potential points that were left unrealized in those three games, and that's why each contest went down to the wire. The Chiefs have moved the ball in that time, it's just been a matter of coming up short in the red zone that has allowed opponents to hang around.

The good news is that Kansas City has shown an ability to finish in the red zone this season. In fact, from Week 7 through Week 9, the Chiefs were 11-for-13 in terms of red zone touchdown efficiency. It's just about recapturing that success on Sunday and moving forward.

It certainly won't be easy though, as Los Angeles currently owns the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL at just 15.7 points allowed-per-game. Additionally, the Chargers have excelled in two key areas: third-down defense (where they rank second in the NFL) and red-zone defense (where they rank third in the league).

Fortunately, for his career, quarterback Patrick Mahomes is a ridiculous 7-2 when facing the league's top ranked scoring defense. Mahomes will have a chance to improve on that lofty mark on Sunday.

4. The Chargers have a league-low six giveaways all season long.

Los Angeles is 8-4 and making a playoff push due in large part to its turnover differential, which is the third-best in the NFL at +11.

The Chargers have turned it over a league-low six times this year, and quarterback Justin Herbert has just one interception all season (which he threw way back in Week 2). Los Angeles' defense, meanwhile, has forced 17 takeaways, which ranks 10th in the league.

That turnover margin (coupled with their top-ranked defense) has helped the Chargers win more often than not despite the league's No. 18 scoring offense, and last week's win over the Falcons was a prime example. Los Angeles recorded less than 200 total yards and didn't score an offensive touchdown, but four takeaways (including a pick-six) led to a Chargers' victory.

The Chiefs have just two giveaways in their last four games (both of which took place against Buffalo), so continuing to protect the football will be key on Sunday against an opportunistic defense. At the same time, Kansas City has forced just two giveaways in its last five games. Sunday would be an ideal time to turn that trend around.

5. A win on Sunday night would wrap up a ninth-straight AFC West title for Kansas City.

The implications are simple for the Chiefs on Sunday: win, and it'll lock up a ninth-straight division crown.

A victory would extend Kansas City's lead over Los Angeles to four games (with four left to play) while also securing the head-to-head tiebreaker, making it impossible for the Chargers to catch up. A win on Sunday would also create an insurmountable lead over Denver with just four games remaining in the regular season.

If the Chargers win, however, things get a little more complicated. The Chiefs would still possess a two-game lead with four weeks remaining, but Kansas City wouldn't have another opportunity to clinch the division until Week 16.

Kansas City is also looking to maintain pace for the top seed in the AFC, too. The Chiefs currently possess a one-game lead over Buffalo, but the Bills own the tiebreaker, so it's critical that Kansas City finishes the regular season with at least a one-game edge on Buffalo.

So, it's all right there for Kansas City, it's just a matter of taking care of business on Sunday night as a ninth-straight division crown is waiting on the other side.

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