The Kansas City Chiefs will aim to defend their back-to-back AFC titles on Sunday as they take on the Buffalo Bills with a spot in Super Bowl LIX on the line.
Here are some quick notes heading into the game.
1. Here's a look at the final injury report for both teams.
The Chiefs are perhaps the healthiest they've been all season heading into Sunday's game. Only four players appeared on the injury report for Kansas City this week, and none of those players were limited in practice.
As for Buffalo, the Bills will be without starting safety Taylor Rapp (back/hip) on Sunday. Rapp was on the field for 778 (88%) of the Bills' defensive snaps this season across 14 starts. In his place, Buffalo will likely play rookie safety Cole Bishop.
The Bills also listed cornerback Christian Benford as "Questionable" for Sunday as he continues to work through the league's concussion protocol. Benford, who was limited in practice this week, led the Bills in defensive snaps this season with 933.
2. The turnover battle will be as critical as ever.
The turnover margin is always important, but it's even more so on Sunday for a variety of reasons.
First, Buffalo has thrived off taking the football away all year long. The Bills forced the third-most turnovers of any team in the league this year with 32, and on those, Buffalo scored a league-most 128 points immediately following takeaways. In fact, 24.4% of the Bills' total points this season took place after turnovers, which marked the third-highest rate of any team in the NFL. Additionally, Buffalo led the league in drives that began in opponent territory with 29, many of which took place following giveaways.
The Bills' 32 takeaways this year were split right down the middle, too. Buffalo forced 16 interceptions and recovered a league-most 16 fumbles, tallying a staggering 57% recovery rate in the process. That formula was certainly at work last week as Buffalo turned Baltimore over three times, and on those, the Bills scored 10 points in what turned out to be a two-point win.
All those takeaways have made up for the fact that Buffalo has yielded the fourth-most first downs of any team in the league (356). The Bills own the No. 29 third-down defense in the NFL (43.8%), and the league's No. 16 red zone defense (57.4%), but they force the opposition to run a bunch of plays, and that increases the likelihood that the opposing offense will make a mistake.
At the same time, Buffalo has also protected the football this year. The Bills turned it over a league-low eight times in 2024, and for the season, Buffalo's +24 mark in terms of turnover margin was far and away the best in the NFL.
That combination has been a critical component of the Bills' success in 2024, but in many ways, the Chiefs have been heating up in that area as well.
Kansas City hasn't committed a single turnover since Week 12. The Chiefs' eight-straight games without a giveaway are an NFL record, and in that timeframe, Kansas City is +11 in terms of turnover margin.
It's all to say that both teams have excelled at winning the turnover battle in recent weeks, and whoever seizes it on Sunday will likely win the game. That's because both Kansas City and Buffalo play a ball-control style of offense that minimizes the total number of possessions available to either team.
The Chiefs faced the fewest opponent possessions (167) of any team in the league this year while Buffalo faced the third-fewest (171), and in this game – just like back in Week 11 – it's quite likely both teams will only possess the ball eight or nine times. That's a stark difference from the Commanders and Lions game from last week, for example, in which both teams recorded double-digit possessions.
So, in a game that will feature limited possessions, it's imperative to make every single one of them count. That's another reason why the turnover battle – while always important – is of particular significance on Sunday.
3. The Bills have consistently created big plays after the catch this season.
The Chiefs and Bills share a handful of similarities, and one major one is how both teams rack up yards after the catch.
Specifically, a league-most 60.2% of the Chiefs' passing yards this year were amassed after-the-catch, and right behind Kansas City at No. 2 in the NFL was Buffalo, which tallied 57.9% of its total passing yards after-the-catch.
The primary playmaker behind those numbers for Buffalo has been wide receiver Khalil Shakir, whose 619 yards after-the-catch this season ranked third among all players. Shakir – who led Buffalo in receiving yards by a wide margin – recorded all but 202 of his receiving yards for the season following the catch, and his 31 receptions on throws behind the line of scrimmage ranked second among all receivers. On those catches, Shakir averaged eight yards-per-reception.
It's a simple point, but the Chiefs' ability to make sure-tackles and to stop Buffalo's short passing plays before they can get going will be a storyline to watch on Sunday.
4. The Chiefs will need to be better defensively on third down than they were in Week 11.
Aside from a costly turnover early in the game, one of the main reasons the Chiefs lost to Buffalo back in Week 11 was the Bills' conversion rate on third down. The Bills were 9-of-15 on third down in that game, and what was particularly damaging is that many of those third downs were lengthy.
Specifically, Buffalo converted six times on 3rd-and-6 or longer, extending several drives that led to points. The Bills converted a 3rd-and-6 and a 3rd-and-8 on its opening touchdown drive, for example. They also converted a 3rd-and-9 (via penalty) early in the second quarter that later led to a touchdown, and moved the chains on another 3rd-and-9 (again, via penalty) late in the third quarter that led to a touchdown.
Lastly, quarterback Josh Allen's touchdown run on 4th-and-2 that essentially sealed the outcome may have never happened if Allen didn't find Khalil Shakir for a 10-yard gain on 3rd-and-9 earlier in the Bills' final drive.
The Chiefs will need to be better on third down this time around, and as part of that mandate, it will be interesting to watch if Kansas City can get Allen on the ground. The Bills yielded the fewest sacks of any team in the league this year, but just last week, the Chiefs racked up eight sacks against Houston.
Something has to give on Sunday, and it's worth pointing out that one of the Chiefs' best pass-rushers – defensive end Charles Omenihu – didn't play in Week 11.
5. Wide receiver Xavier Worthy is a player to watch on Sunday.
Worthy, who caught four passes for 61 yards and a touchdown vs. Buffalo back in Week 11, put together a breakout performance in that game, and it turned out to be a springboard for the rest of his rookie season.
He has recorded at least 40 receiving yards in every game he's played in since that game, and between Week 11 and Week 17, Worthy was one of just five players – joining Amon-Ra St. Brown, Calvin Ridley, Puka Nacua and D.J. Moore – to hit that mark in all seven games.
Worthy hauled in five catches for 45 yards in his playoff debut against Houston, and he'll now have a chance to put together another productive game against Buffalo on Sunday.
So, once again, it all comes down to this. The Chiefs and Bills have clashed in some of the greatest games in NFL postseason history over the years, and with a trip to Super Bowl LIX up for grabs, these two old rivals will do so yet again in the AFC Championship Game.