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Five Things to Watch on Saturday | Texans vs. Chiefs

Here’s a quick game preview heading into Saturday

The Kansas City Chiefs will have an opportunity to match the franchise regular-season record for wins on Saturday with a matchup against the Houston Texans.

Here are five things to keep in mind heading into game day.

1. Here's a look at the final injury report for both teams.

The Chiefs will be without offensive tackle D.J. Humphries (hamstring) and safety Chamarri Conner (concussion protocol) on Saturday, but in some great news, quarterback Patrick Mahomes (ankle) isn't carrying an injury designation into the matchup.

Mahomes, who suffered an ankle injury late in last week's game against Cleveland, was a full participant throughout the week of practice. Head Coach Andy Reid reported on Thursday that Mahomes "would most likely end up playing," and his lack of a designation on the injury report – which was published a few hours later – confirmed that assessment.

In some additional good news, Coach Reid revealed that there's "a good chance" wide receiver Hollywood Brown makes his Chiefs debut on Saturday.

UPDATE: The Chiefs added linebacker Leo Chenal to the injury report with an illness on Friday. He's listed as "Questionable" to play on Saturday.

As for Houston, the Texans will be without starting defensive tackle Foley Fatukasi (ankle), offensive lineman Juice Scruggs (foot), wide receiver John Metchie III (shoulder), and tight end Cade Stover (illness). The absence of Scruggs, in particular, is significant considering his versatility. The former second-round pick started eight games at center before starting four games at left guard from Week 11 through Week 13.

Houston will likely have offensive guard Kenyon Green back, however, after he missed the Texans' last five games due to a shoulder injury. It's reasonable to think Green will slide in at left guard, where he started the first nine games of the season, but it remains to be seen what the Texans' starting five will be on Saturday. For what it's worth, regular starting right tackle Tytus Howard played left guard last week (in Scruggs' absence) while reserve Blake Fisher started at right tackle.

Here's a look at the complete injury report for both teams.

2. Texans' quarterback C.J. Stroud has been sacked 45 times this season.

Stroud, who won Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2023, has been sacked the second-most times of any quarterback in the NFL this season, trailing only Caleb Williams (58). In fact, Stroud has already been sacked seven more times in 2024 than he was all of last year.

Additionally, Stroud has been sacked at least four times in a league-most seven games this season. That benchmark is an important one, too. When Stroud has been sacked at least four times, Houston is 2-5. When he's been sacked three or fewer times, the Texans are a perfect 7-0.

It's all to say that Stroud has been under a lot of pressure this year, and the Chiefs' pass-rush is coming off a game against Cleveland in which it matched a season-best with five sacks.

Stroud can make all the throws, but after leading the league in passing yards-per-game in 2023, he ranks 14th in that category this year due in large part to the constant pressure he's been under. So, if the Chiefs are to win on Saturday, the success of the pass-rush will likely be a major reason why.

3. Houston has forced the second-most takeaways of any team in the NFL.

A primary reason behind the Texans' 9-5 record this year has been their ability to create turnovers. Houston has a ridiculous 28 takeaways this season, which ranks second in the NFL and trails only Pittsburgh (30).

It's an impressive tally, but the more important statistic reflects what Houston has done with those takeaways. The Texans have scored 93 points off turnovers this season, which ranks third in the league and represents 28.4% of their total points for the year. That's the highest rate in the league, and for context, without the points off turnovers, Houston is averaging just 16.7 points-per-game.

So, while avoiding turnovers is always important, it's clearly of enhanced significance against Houston. The good news for Kansas City is the Chiefs are one of only two teams without a giveaway over the last four weeks. The only other team without a turnover in that time is Buffalo, which has only played three games.

The Chiefs will need to keep that trend going against an opportunistic Texans defense that has often made the most of its takeaways.

4. The Texans' defense has piled up 45 sacks and 99 negative plays.

In addition to the takeaways, the Texans have also racked up the second-most sacks of any team in the league with 45, and exactly half of that production has been split by two players in edge rushers Danielle Hunter (12 sacks) and Will Anderson Jr. (10.5 sacks). The Texans are the only team in the league to feature multiple players with double-digit sacks this season.

Houston has also piled up 99 negative plays defensively, which ranks second in the league, and on those plays, opponents have lost a league-most 453 yards.

Those marks are obviously concerning, so it'll be interesting to see how the Chiefs attack Houston's pass-rush schematically. Last week, for example, the Chiefs executed a wide receiver screen to Xavier Worthy that went for a 21-yard touchdown on edge rusher Myles Garrett's side of the field. The week prior against Los Angeles, Kansas City utilized a quick passing game in the second half that seemed to keep the Chargers' pass-rush at bay after the Chiefs struggled to protect early in the game.

As for who will line up at left tackle on Saturday, Coach Reid wasn't quite ready to reveal that answer during Thursday's media session:

"We'll just see how things worked out today. [We] rotated guys at the left tackle position – Joe Thuney being one of them – and then the young guys [Wanya Morris and Kingsley Suamataia]," Reid said. "We'll just finalize that as we get closer here, but they all got work in there."

5. Here's a look at the Chiefs' situation as it relates to the postseason entering Week 16.

Kansas City currently owns a two-game advantage over Buffalo with three left to play in the race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC postseason picture, but keep in mind, the Bills own the tiebreaker over the Chiefs. So, Kansas City needs to finish at least one game better than Buffalo in order to lock up a first-round bye and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. In other words, the Chiefs need one of the following scenarios to occur:

  • Kansas City wins two of its final three games
  • Kansas City wins one of its final three games while Buffalo loses once
  • Buffalo loses two of its final three games

A win on Saturday over Houston would narrow the Chiefs' "magic number" to just one, meaning one more Chiefs' win or Buffalo loss would secure the top seed in the conference.

Most importantly, the Chiefs control their own destiny heading into the final three weeks of the regular season, and Kansas City can take another major step toward the top seed in the conference with a victory over the Texans.

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